美国亚马逊运动服饰榜单追踪 Amazon US Best Sellers · Top 100

深度分析

2026-10-31 · 共 16 个分析，16 个已激活 （数据够天数后自动上线，由每日自我改进循环接管）

选择日期： 11-0511-0411-0311-0211-0110-3110-3010-2910-2810-2710-2610-2510-2410-23
类目集中度 22 天价格与排名关系 22 天评分格局 22 天标题与卖点情报 22 天类目热度指数 22 天评论增速（销量代理） 22 天异常检测 22 天品牌攻防 22 天价格带迁移 22 天机会缺口 22 天排名动量 22 天预测与自校验 22 天listing 运营因子 22 天定价心理 22 天类目货架结构 22 天销量估算模型（自校准） 22 天

结构面

类目集中度CR4/CR10/HHI：这个类目是几个大牌说了算，还是散兵游勇

Competitive Swimwear
772
CR4 43% · 样本 100
Tennis Clothing
476
CR4 34% · 样本 100
Gymnastics Clothing
356
CR4 29% · 样本 100
Golf Clothing
354
CR4 30% · 样本 100
集中度差异在已识别品牌的商品中，Competitive Swimwear 最集中（HHI 772，前 4 名品牌占 43%，样本 100 个）；Running Clothing 最分散（HHI 166，样本 100 个）。集中度高 = 新玩家难切，分散 = 长尾机会多。
口径与样本集中度只统计**已采集到品牌**的排名位（各类目平均覆盖 100%），未采集到品牌的位置不参与计算——否则等于凭空造出一个占最大份额的「未知品牌」，HHI 会虚高。详情层每天按排名补齐，覆盖率会随天数上升。

HHI（越高越集中）

Competitive Swimwear772Tennis Clothing476Gymnastics Clothing356Golf Clothing354Martial Arts Clothin336Volleyball Clothing324Soccer & Futsal 308Yoga Clothing270Dance Apparel258Basketball Clothing248Cycling Clothing238Baseball Clothing202Snowboarding Clothin194Hiking & Outdoor184Ski Clothing172Running Clothing166

各类目集中度（按 HHI 降序，仅计已识别品牌）

分类品牌数CR4CR10HHI样本品牌覆盖
Competitive Swimwear3943%66%772100100%
Tennis Clothing5234%52%476100100%
Gymnastics Clothing5429%49%356100100%
Golf Clothing6030%44%354100100%
Martial Arts Clothing5828%48%336100100%
Volleyball Clothing5626%48%324100100%
Soccer & Futsal Clothing5926%46%308100100%
Yoga Clothing6824%38%270100100%
Dance Apparel6321%37%258100100%
Basketball Clothing6723%39%248100100%
Cycling Clothing6721%37%238100100%
Baseball Clothing7017%32%202100100%
Snowboarding Clothing7117%32%194100100%
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing7315%32%184100100%
Ski Clothing7615%28%172100100%
Running Clothing7513%27%166100100%

价格与排名关系同一类目里，便宜是不是真的更靠前（Spearman 秩相关 + 十分位价格）

品牌溢价类目（越贵名次越好）1 个类目呈明显负相关：价格越高名次反而越好，最明显的是 Volleyball Clothing（ρ=-0.24）——这类目打价格战没用，拼的是品牌和品质。
价格敏感类目（便宜的名次更好）3 个类目呈明显正相关：价格越低名次越好，典型是 Snowboarding Clothing（ρ=+0.36）——这类目里低价走量是有效打法。
头尾价格对比前 10 名的中位价 $14.99，第 91-100 名 $16.99（头部更便宜）。

按排名分位的价格中位数

第1-10名15第11-20名15第21-30名15第31-40名17第41-50名18第51-60名18第61-70名15第71-80名15第81-90名19第91-100名17

各类目价格-排名秩相关（负=越贵名次越好，正=越便宜名次越好）

分类ρ中位价样本解读
Volleyball Clothing-0.2424.9975越贵更靠前
Martial Arts Clothing-0.1328.9966关系不明显
Gymnastics Clothing-0.1014.9995关系不明显
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing-0.0112.9971关系不明显
Yoga Clothing-0.0019.9977关系不明显
Tennis Clothing+0.0214.9970关系不明显
Competitive Swimwear+0.0728.1173关系不明显
Running Clothing+0.0914.9775关系不明显
Soccer & Futsal Clothing+0.1019.9972关系不明显
Golf Clothing+0.1114.9971关系不明显
Cycling Clothing+0.1612.9879关系不明显
Baseball Clothing+0.1714.9974关系不明显
Ski Clothing+0.2014.4282关系不明显
Dance Apparel+0.2412.9976便宜更靠前
Basketball Clothing+0.3619.9864便宜更靠前
Snowboarding Clothing+0.369.9875便宜更靠前

评分格局哪些商品叫好不叫座，哪些评分一般却排名很高

评分格局 计算失败TypeError: unsupported format string passed to NoneType.__format__

标题与卖点情报从标题里提炼属性词，看什么属性更容易上榜、卖什么价

上榜最多的卖点词高腰（187 个排名位，中位价 $16.99，中位排名 42）、口袋（307 个排名位，中位价 $24.82，中位排名 43）、宽松（168 个排名位，中位价 $22.88，中位排名 46）。
低于均价且排名更好的属性纯棉 —— 这些属性在榜单里更偏「性价比」定位。
能卖更贵且排名更好高个、娇小、高腰、口袋、聚酯纤维、宽松 —— 溢价属性，适合做高价款。

标题高频词

workout458athletic447sleeve434shorts392running392long355soft324shirts302pants298pockets286men's283lightweight283winter269casual261yoga257tops243women's235breathable235

属性词表现（按中位排名排序，越低越好）

全站基准：中位价 $14.99，中位排名 50。出现少于 8 次的属性不列出。

属性排名位中位价中位排名平均评分最好名次价格 vs 全站排名 vs 全站
高个1818.8618.54.441+3.87-32
娇小1733.14284.312+18.15-22
高腰18716.99424.381+2.00-8
口袋30724.82434.391+9.83-8
聚酯纤维1419.9746.04.4414+4.98-4
宽松16822.8846.04.361+7.89-4
纯棉10112.33474.432-2.66-4
紧身裤7319.79474.431+4.80-4
卫衣17425.9947.54.351+11.00-3
T恤9314.99494.495+0.00-2
弹力/氨纶18317.99504.432+3.00-0
压缩6521.49504.483+6.50-0
男士60314.99504.491+0.00-0
女士89116.98504.381+1.99-0
袜子4917.48504.573+2.49-0
透气/网眼24814.9951.04.51+0.00+0
保暖/抓绒18818.9951.04.441+4.00+0
短裤38614.9951.04.441+0.00+0
防晒11911.69514.452-3.30+0
拉链16425.9851.54.381+10.99+1
多件装21619.9853.54.461+4.99+3
速干34314.99544.471+0.00+4
羊毛/美利奴1413.4954.54.53-1.50+4
儿童/青少年18714.73584.61-0.26+8
无缝2525.94614.4112+10.95+10
背心2814.9967.54.3813+0.00+17
大码913.20774.231-1.79+26

listing 运营因子视频/A+/图片/变体/尺码/颜色/卖点/上架时间/卖家类型，哪些和排名有关系

详情样本
1037
个不同 ASIN（1600 行去重后）
有视频
17%
175 个
图片中位数
6.0
张
上架天数中位
835.0
可解析 788 个
排名差最大的因子颜色可选数 上差异最明显：颜色多的一组中位排名 42（464 个），颜色少的一组 53（500 个），差 -11 名；中位价 $16.99 vs $17.99。其余依次是 变体数量 -10、上架时间 -10、卖家类型 -10。
差异太小，别过度解读8 个能比的因子里，中位排名差最大也只有 11 名，而样本的排名区间横跨 1-100 名。同一个「更便宜」的分组给出相反的排名结果，说明单日数据下这些 2-3 名的差距基本落在噪声里；要下结论得等详情覆盖率上来、并且控制住类目和价格再算。另一头倒是有个符合直觉的：变体数量 里「有」的一组中位价贵 $2.00、排名靠前 10 名，像是高配撑溢价。
A+ 字段没有采到，本项无结论详情层 1037 个商品的 has_aplus 全是 0 —— 更可能是详情解析没识别出 A+ 模块，而不是「这个榜单上没人做 A+」。所以 A+ 已从对比里剔除，等采集口径修好再算，不能反推 A+ 无效。
样本不足被剔除的因子A+ 页面（0 vs 964） —— 一组不足 8 个样本，中位数不可靠，已跳过。
这是相关性，不是因果样本是 1037 个已采集详情的商品（对应 1600 个排名位、共 1600 个），只有一个日期，没有对照组也没有时间先后。卖得好的商品更可能去配视频、加图片、开变体 —— 方向更可能是「排名高 → 运营投入多」，不能读成「加个视频就能上榜」。再者这份样本偏头部：有详情的排名位平均第 50 名，没详情的平均第 0 名（详情层按排名从上往下补采），所以结论只对头部商品成立，不能外推到 50 名以后。上架时间可解析 788/1037 个（其余格式不符已跳过），卖家可识别 695/1037 个；字段覆盖率见下表 n 列。

「有/高」一组的商品数（越大越常见）

颜色可选数464变体数量457上架时间394卖家类型65视频175尺码可选数475卖点条数70图片数量106

运营因子「有 vs 无」对比（按排名差升序，负=有该因子更靠前）

样本：1037 个已采集详情的商品（同一 ASIN 跨类目只计一次）。连续型因子按中位数切两半，差值为 0 说明两组位置基本一样。排名差为负 = 「有/高」那一组排名更靠前。

因子分组商品数中位排名中位价平均评分排名差(有-无)
颜色可选数（中位 15）颜色多46442.016.994.43-11
颜色少50053.017.994.43—
变体数量（中位 20）多变体4574318.994.43-10
少变体5075316.994.43—
上架时间（中位 835）上架久（>中位）39444.019.974.46-10
上架新（≤中位）39454.014.994.41—
卖家类型Amazon 自营653925.134.46-10
第三方卖家63049.016.994.44—
视频有视频1754019.974.41-9
无视频7894916.994.44—
尺码可选数（中位 5）尺码多4754619.994.46-3
尺码少4894914.994.41—
卖点条数（中位 5）卖点多7045.018.164.4-3
卖点少89448.017.984.43—
图片数量（中位 6）多图（>中位）10646.013.974.42-1
少图（≤中位）77647.017.994.43—

定价心理价格尾数 .99/.95/.49/整数 各占什么位置，折扣力度和评分数量的关系

定价心理 计算失败TypeError: unsupported format string passed to NoneType.__format__

类目货架结构各类目的价格分布、材质与性别构成、视频/图片配置，找货架还空着的类目

Dance Apparel
12.99
中位价 · 视频覆盖 7% · 空白度 90
Gymnastics Clothing
14.99
中位价 · 视频覆盖 13% · 空白度 86
Snowboarding Clothing
9.98
中位价 · 视频覆盖 8% · 空白度 82
Competitive Swimwear
28.11
中位价 · 视频覆盖 11% · 空白度 75
货架最空的类目Dance Apparel（空白度 90）：100 个详情样本里只有 7% 带视频，价格带 P25-P75 只跨 $8.99~$16.99（0.62 倍中位价），说明货架主要集中在同一种价位和同一种配置上。同类目还有 Gymnastics Clothing（86）、Snowboarding Clothing（82）。
已经卷起来的类目Soccer & Futsal Clothing（空白度 33）视频覆盖率 28%（100 个详情样本），价格也铺得开 —— 这类目基本要靠内容和价格同时到位才挤得进去，不适合轻装上阵。
A+ 比例这一列现在是废的全部 16 个类目的 A+ 比例都是 0% —— 与 listing 运营因子一致，是详情解析没识别出 A+ 模块，不是真的没人做。这一列暂时不能用来判断货架配置。
口径与局限价格四分位来自榜单层（价格覆盖近 100%），每个类目 100 个排名位，是稳的；材质/视频/图片来自商品详情层，只有 1600/1600 个排名位有详情（各类目 100~100 个，视频比例的分母就这么大，波动会很明显）。材质字段另有覆盖问题，各类目可用材质样本 75~89 个，且是关键字命中不是成分占比。department 平均覆盖 64%，缺失时用标题里的 men/women/kids 兜底，unisex 商品可能被标题误判。空白度 = 视频覆盖率 60% + 价格带宽窄 40% （各自在类目间归一化），是个启发式排序，不是收益预测。

各类目视频覆盖率（%，详情样本内）

Volleyball Clothing33Soccer & Futsal 28Martial Arts Clothin24Cycling Clothing23Basketball Clothing20Baseball Clothing19Tennis Clothing19Yoga Clothing19Hiking & Outdoor18Running Clothing15Gymnastics Clothing13Golf Clothing12Ski Clothing11Competitive Swimwear11Snowboarding Clothin8Dance Apparel7

货架空白度（越高越空）

Dance Apparel90Gymnastics Clothing86Snowboarding Clothin82Competitive Swimwear75Ski Clothing72Basketball Clothing65Running Clothing64Golf Clothing60Baseball Clothing59Yoga Clothing58Cycling Clothing43Martial Arts Clothin43Volleyball Clothing39Tennis Clothing38Hiking & Outdoor35Soccer & Futsal 33

各类目货架配置（按价格中位数升序）

材质/视频/图片的分母是「该类目已采集详情的商品数」（最后一列），不是 100；性别占比的分母是全类目，department 缺失时用标题关键字兜底。

分类P25中位价P75价格跨度 P75-P25纯棉%涤纶%尼龙%弹力%女士%男士%儿童%有视频%平均图片详情样本
Snowboarding Clothing7.999.9814.997.010.442.91.318.274.015.00.08.05.93100
Cycling Clothing9.9812.9819.9910.016.777.39.322.757.037.01.023.06.0100
Dance Apparel8.9912.9916.998.03.552.915.340.063.02.034.07.05.69100
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing8.9912.9922.9914.012.057.88.418.159.035.00.018.06.0100
Ski Clothing8.9914.4219.9610.975.352.65.328.960.025.011.011.05.95100
Running Clothing8.9914.9719.9911.09.450.618.836.566.029.03.015.05.94100
Baseball Clothing9.9914.9919.9910.018.352.417.115.947.038.09.019.05.47100
Golf Clothing10.6814.9924.1413.4614.863.09.917.345.050.01.012.05.89100
Gymnastics Clothing11.9914.9918.997.08.551.220.770.715.00.084.013.05.6100
Tennis Clothing10.0614.9924.8114.7516.267.55.022.550.044.01.019.05.87100
Basketball Clothing14.1519.9824.9910.8411.864.714.123.551.042.06.020.05.9100
Soccer & Futsal Clothing12.9919.9927.9114.924.577.59.022.565.031.02.028.05.79100
Yoga Clothing12.9919.9926.5413.558.162.820.924.466.030.04.019.05.78100
Volleyball Clothing18.4324.9930.4912.0613.374.73.625.389.08.03.033.05.55100
Competitive Swimwear19.9928.1139.9920.00.060.540.838.245.034.019.011.05.43100
Martial Arts Clothing19.9828.9941.4921.518.070.712.030.756.037.05.024.05.68100

货架特征一句话（每个类目一行）

空白度高 = 视频覆盖偏低且价格带偏窄，是「货架还没铺满」的相对信号，不等于需求存在。

分类货架特征空白度
Baseball Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（52%）、女士向（47%）。59
Basketball Clothing高价溢价、视频覆盖低、价格带窄、材质以涤纶为主（65%）、女士向（51%）。65
Cycling Clothing中价主流、视频中等、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（77%）、女士向（57%）。43
Dance Apparel中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（53%）、女士向（63%）。90
Golf Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（63%）、男士向（50%）。60
Gymnastics Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带窄、材质以弹力为主（71%）、儿童向（84%）。86
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（58%）、女士向（59%）。35
Martial Arts Clothing高价溢价、视频中等、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（71%）、女士向（56%）。43
Running Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（51%）、女士向（66%）。64
Ski Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（53%）、女士向（60%）。72
Snowboarding Clothing低价走量、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（43%）、女士向（74%）。82
Soccer & Futsal Clothing高价溢价、视频中等、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（78%）、女士向（65%）。33
Competitive Swimwear高价溢价、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（60%）、女士向（45%）。75
Tennis Clothing中价主流、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（68%）、女士向（50%）。38
Volleyball Clothing高价溢价、视频中等、价格带窄、材质以涤纶为主（75%）、女士向（89%）。39
Yoga Clothing高价溢价、视频覆盖低、价格带中等、材质以涤纶为主（63%）、女士向（66%）。58

销量估算模型（自校准）不照抄第三方黑箱系数：用亚马逊自己的 "N bought in past month" 反推留评率，再用两种互相独立的估算交叉校验

榜单商品位次
1,600
本日 16 个分类的 Top 100
有销量下界的商品
975
占已采集 60.9%
实测留评率
8.11%
每卖出 100 件的评论数（池化估计）
两种估算一致度
1.23
中位比值，越接近 1 越一致
名次与销量的衰减比想象中陡第 1-10 名实测月销下界中位 3,000 件，第 91-100 名只有 700 件，相差 77%。冲进前 10 名的价值主要在这里。
实测留评率上限约 8.11%池化样本：975 个商品合计评论 +3,488，对应已知月销下界合计 1,290,100 件。换算过来大约每卖出 12 件才有一条评论，高于业界常引用的 1%~5%，也就是评论比想象中「密」。方向要说清楚：亚马逊标注的是销量下界，所以这个留评率是上限、对应的倍数 12 是下限——真实销量只会更高，不会更低。用「评论数 × 100」这种高倍数估销量会把量级压得过低。
两种独立估算的交叉校验931 个商品同时有 A/B 两个估算，评论法与排名法的中位比值 1.23（1.00 表示完全一致）；两者大致吻合，说明模型可用。
这个模型不能当事实用亚马逊只给分桶下界（如「1K+」），名次段曲线来自几百个已采集样本，留评率用池化估计掩盖了品类差异。它适合横向比大小、找机会款，不适合写进合同或当成精确销量。

各名次段实测月销量下界（中位）

1-103,00011-201,00021-301,00031-401,00041-5060051-6070061-7060071-8065081-9070091-100700

榜单名次 → 实测月销量下界（经验曲线）

来自亚马逊自己标注的 "N bought in past month"，是下界不是精确值；括号区间是最小/最大值。名次段样本不足 3 个的段不显示。

名次段样本月销量下界中位区间
1-101093,00050~20,000
11-20971,00050~10,000
21-30991,00050~10,000
31-401061,00050~9,000
41-509860050~6,000
51-6010170050~8,000
61-709060050~7,000
71-8010065050~5,000
81-909270050~5,000
91-1008370050~6,000

估算月销量最高的商品

A 排名法用名次段实测曲线；B 评论法用实测留评率换算，只对当天评论有增长的商品可算，所以大量商品是「—」。

商品分类名次A 排名法B 评论法价格亚马逊标注
Flexfit Men's Athletic Baseball Fitted CapBaseball Clothing13,0003,698$13.446K+ bought
ALWAYS Yoga Shorts for Women – High Waisted Workout Baseball Clothing23,000369$9.991K+ bought
Falari Baseball Cap Adjustable Size for Running WorkBaseball Clothing33,0001,479$8.503K+ bought
Century Star Knee High Socks for Women Long Tube SocBaseball Clothing43,0003,328$5.09—
KBETHOS Classic Unisex Cotton Adjustable Low Crown BBaseball Clothing53,0001,849$8.954K+ bought
LXNMGO Women's 2"/7" High Waist Yoga Shorts Tummy CoBaseball Clothing63,000—$14.991K+ bought
Biker Shorts Women with Pockets - 3"/5"/8" Workout GBaseball Clothing73,0002,589$8.994K+ bought
NPJY Baseball Cap Golf Dad Hat Adjustable Original CBaseball Clothing83,000—$7.953K+ bought
NORTHYARD Men's Athletic Running Shorts Gym Workout Baseball Clothing93,000—$24.991K+ bought
VOYJOY Women Workout Impact Shorts 2.5"/ 3.6"/ 4.5"/Baseball Clothing103,000—$19.99300+ bought
Amazon Essentials Men's Fleece Open Bottom SweatpantBasketball Clothing13,0005,917$14.207K+ bought
Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SweBasketball Clothing23,0009,616$15.358K+ bought

两种估算差异最大的商品（疑似异常）

排名靠前但评论几乎不增长，常见原因是刚上架、变体合并、或长期断货。

商品名次A 排名法B 评论法提示
ALWAYS Yoga Shorts for Women – High Waisted Workou23,000369评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
Vinaderhom Women's Metallic Booty Shorts Shiny Hig33,000369评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
Tutu for Women Adults - 5-Layer Tulle Skirts 80s O43,000739评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
ALWAYS Yoga Shorts for Women – High Waisted Workou53,000369评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
Vinaderhom Women's Shiny Metallic Booty Shorts Rav63,000739评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
PINSPARK 14" Womens Tennis Skirt High Waisted Golf13,000739评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
Bloch Dance Women's Nejor Microlux Camisole Leotar23,000369评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并
WEGETIT Leotards for Girls Long Sleeve Bodysuit To53,000369评论远低于同类名次，疑似刚上架/评论被合并

分类层面估算日销与日销售额（下界）

仅统计有名次段曲线的商品位次，因此是整条榜单的下界而非全量。

分类估算商品数月销量下界日销量下界日销售额下界
Baseball Clothing10099,5003,316$40,285
Basketball Clothing10099,5003,316$41,662
Competitive Swimwear10099,5003,316$81,124
Cycling Clothing10099,5003,316$37,599
Dance Apparel10099,5003,316$29,851
Golf Clothing10099,5003,316$38,800
Gymnastics Clothing10099,5003,316$52,294
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing10099,5003,316$39,828
Martial Arts Clothing10099,5003,316$72,723
Running Clothing10099,5003,316$39,736
Ski Clothing10099,5003,316$43,741
Snowboarding Clothing10099,5003,316$28,467
Soccer & Futsal Clothing10099,5003,316$49,438
Tennis Clothing10099,5003,316$48,071
Volleyball Clothing10099,5003,316$65,495
Yoga Clothing10099,5003,316$54,388

动态面

类目热度指数换血率 + 评论增速 + 价格波动合成 0-100 热度分

Golf Clothing
53
换血 31%
Basketball Clothing
52
换血 25%
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing
52
换血 25%
Soccer & Futsal Clothing
52
换血 25%
最热的类目Golf Clothing（热度 53，换血 31%，评论日增中位 +3）——榜单变动快，新品有机会挤进去。
最稳的类目Snowboarding Clothing（热度 9）——榜单结构稳定，短期靠运营挤榜的难度大。

类目热度

Golf Clothing53Basketball Clothing52Hiking & Outdoor52Soccer & Futsal 52Tennis Clothing50Volleyball Clothing48Martial Arts Clothin46Competitive Swimwear45Cycling Clothing40Yoga Clothing40Running Clothing37Gymnastics Clothing36Baseball Clothing32Dance Apparel20Ski Clothing12Snowboarding Clothin9

类目热度分解（热量高=变化快）

分类热度换血率新上榜评论日增中位价格中位变动
Golf Clothing52.631.0%31+3+0.0%
Basketball Clothing52.125.0%25+4+0.0%
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing52.125.0%25+4+0.0%
Soccer & Futsal Clothing52.125.0%25+4+0.0%
Tennis Clothing49.529.0%29+3+0.0%
Volleyball Clothing48.028.0%28+3+0.0%
Martial Arts Clothing46.038.0%38+1+0.0%
Competitive Swimwear45.043.0%43+0+0.0%
Cycling Clothing40.223.0%23+3+0.0%
Yoga Clothing39.717.0%17+4+0.0%
Running Clothing36.615.0%15+4+0.0%
Gymnastics Clothing35.737.0%37+0+0.0%
Baseball Clothing31.523.0%23+2+0.0%
Dance Apparel19.621.0%21+1+0.0%
Ski Clothing11.916.0%16+1+0.0%
Snowboarding Clothing8.814.0%14+1+0.0%

评论增速（销量代理）一天涨了多少评论，反推大概卖了多少件

评论涨得最快Merino.tech 100% Merino Wool Base Layer Men Se（Ski Clothing）一天新增 2,342 条评论，当前 3,397 条，排名第 92。
评论增长的普遍性1189 个连续两天在榜的商品里，906 个（76%）评论数在增长，262 个一天内没有变化；增长商品的中位日增是 +3 条（全体中位数是 +0，因为多数商品当天没有新评论，所以看增长商品的中位数更有意义）。
疑似数据跳变4 个商品一天增加超过 200 条评论（Fuinloth Balaclava Ski M、Fuinloth Balaclava Ski M、Merino.tech 100% Merino ），这通常是变体合并或历史评论并入，不是真实日销，销量推算列已标记，不参与横向比较。
销量推算口径日均销量按「评论日增 ÷ 评论率」反推，评论率取 1%~5% 区间，所以给出的是一个范围而不是一个数——真实评论率 Amazon 不公开，这个指标只适合横向比较，不适合当绝对销量用。

评论日增 Top25（含销量粗略推算）

推算日销 = 评论日增 × 20 ~ ×100（对应 5%~1% 评论率），仅供横向比较。

商品分类排名评论日增累计评论推算日销(件)价格
Merino.tech 100% Merino Wool Base Layer Men Set - ThSki Clothing92+2,3423,397疑似变体合并99.99
Fuinloth Balaclava Ski Mask, Motorcycle Summer Thin Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing21+22148,563疑似变体合并5.99
Fuinloth Balaclava Ski Mask, Motorcycle Summer Thin Ski Clothing9+22148,563疑似变体合并5.99
Fuinloth Balaclava Ski Mask, Motorcycle Summer Thin Snowboarding Clothing6+22148,563疑似变体合并5.99
Nike Kids' Sportswear Club Fleece JoggersBasketball Clothing71+1305042,600 ~ 13,000—
JUKMO Men's Stretch Tactical Belt, 1.5" Elastic NyloGolf Clothing33+3314,860660 ~ 3,30014.98
Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SweBasketball Clothing2+2672,426520 ~ 2,60015.35
Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SweRunning Clothing2+2672,426520 ~ 2,60015.35
FITRELL 3 Pairs Compression Socks for Women and Men Running Clothing11+2540,525500 ~ 2,50012.99
Leafigure High Waisted Leggings for Women | Soft ComRunning Clothing14+252,608500 ~ 2,5005.99
Alvada Mens Merino Wool Crew Socks Thermal and Warm Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing3+2437,677480 ~ 2,40014.99
Compression Shirt Men Slimming Body Shaper Vest CrewRunning Clothing38+232,998460 ~ 2,300—
SINOPHANT High Waisted Leggings Women with Pockets |Yoga Clothing1+2315,269460 ~ 2,3006.39
Walifrey Joggers with Pockets, Drawstring SweatpantsBasketball Clothing3+2211,052440 ~ 2,2008.49
Walifrey Joggers with Pockets, Drawstring SweatpantsRunning Clothing10+2211,052440 ~ 2,2008.99
PRETISKY Womens Flared Yoga Pants with Pockets, HighBasketball Clothing6+202,467400 ~ 2,00012.98
PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women 1/2 Zip Sweatsuit 20Martial Arts Clothing6+202,294400 ~ 2,00048.99
PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women 1/2 Zip Sweatsuit 20Soccer & Futsal Clothing33+202,294400 ~ 2,00048.99
PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women 1/2 Zip Sweatsuit 20Tennis Clothing21+202,294400 ~ 2,00048.99
PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women 1/2 Zip Sweatsuit 20Volleyball Clothing13+202,294400 ~ 2,00048.99
Under Armour Men's Tech 2.0 Short-Sleeve T-ShirtCycling Clothing5+18112,240360 ~ 1,80021.00
Under Armour Men's Tech 2.0 Short-Sleeve T-ShirtGolf Clothing11+18112,240360 ~ 1,80021.00
Under Armour Men's Tech 2.0 Short-Sleeve T-ShirtHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing17+18112,240360 ~ 1,80021.00
Under Armour Men's Tech 2.0 Short-Sleeve T-ShirtSoccer & Futsal Clothing12+18112,240360 ~ 1,80021.00
Under Armour Men's Tech 2.0 Short-Sleeve T-ShirtTennis Clothing8+18112,240360 ~ 1,80021.00

各类目评论日增中位数

分类评论日增中位累计评论中位样本
Basketball Clothing+43,46275
Hiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing+43,70375
Running Clothing+46,95085
Soccer & Futsal Clothing+43,69275
Yoga Clothing+44,16082
Cycling Clothing+33,25577
Golf Clothing+33,72469
Tennis Clothing+34,07871
Volleyball Clothing+383272
Baseball Clothing+23,70377
Dance Apparel+168279
Martial Arts Clothing+11,02862
Ski Clothing+12,81484
Snowboarding Clothing+12,72486
Gymnastics Clothing+057163
Competitive Swimwear+080257

异常检测单日价格骤变、排名跳变、评论暴增，按严重度排序

价格骤变
32
个
评论暴增
1
个
本日异常汇总价格骤变 32 个、评论暴增 1 个，最严重的是「评论暴增」：一天 +2,342 条评论。

异常明细（严重度降序）

类型商品分类变化严重度
评论暴增Merino.tech 100% Merino Wool Base Layer Men Set - Ski Clothing一天 +2,342 条评论7.8
价格骤变Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SBasketball Clothing$7.44 → $15.35（+106%）7.1
价格骤变Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SRunning Clothing$7.44 → $15.35（+106%）7.1
价格骤变Pudolla Men's Fishing Swim Graphic Shirts Short SlCompetitive Swimwear$14.99 → $24.99（+67%）4.4
价格骤变Amazon Essentials Women's Fleece Hooded Tunic SweaVolleyball Clothing$7.32 → $11.12（+52%）3.5
价格骤变Place and Street Men’s Cotton Thermal Underwear SeSki Clothing$13.21 → $19.88（+50%）3.4
价格骤变Dokotoo Women's Casual Crew Neck Sweatshirt Loose Volleyball Clothing$27.88 → $14.99（-46%）3.1
价格骤变Yilook Girls Athletic Shorts Kids High Waisted VolBaseball Clothing$5.02 → $6.98（+39%）2.6
价格骤变JMIERR Mens 2 Piece Hoodie Jogger Set Textured KniMartial Arts Clothing$45.99 → $29.99（-35%）2.3
价格骤变Augusta Sportswear Mens Baseball 3/4 Sleeve Tee 2.Baseball Clothing$9.60 → $12.67（+32%）2.1
价格骤变Yilook Girls Athletic Shorts Kids High Waisted VolVolleyball Clothing$6.82 → $8.98（+32%）2.1
价格骤变YEOREO Ease Workout Leggings Womens Straight LeggiYoga Clothing$22.92 → $29.99（+31%）2.1
价格骤变URATOT 2 Pack Women's Cotton Dolphin Lounge ActiveBaseball Clothing$9.99 → $12.99（+30%）2.0
价格骤变Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing$9.99 → $12.99（+30%）2.0
价格骤变Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaSoccer & Futsal Clothing$9.99 → $12.99（+30%）2.0
价格骤变Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaVolleyball Clothing$9.99 → $12.99（+30%）2.0
价格骤变MdnMd Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard for BalletDance Apparel$13.98 → $17.99（+29%）1.9
价格骤变MdnMd Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard for BalletGymnastics Clothing$13.98 → $17.99（+29%）1.9
价格骤变ONUPGO Sweatband Set Sports Headband Wristband SetCycling Clothing$6.29 → $7.99（+27%）1.8
价格骤变Arshiner Kids Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard DaGymnastics Clothing$18.99 → $23.99（+26%）1.8
价格骤变Century Star 2 Pack 4 Layers Tutu for Girls ToddleDance Apparel$7.99 → $9.99（+25%）1.7
价格骤变ROCKBROS Windproof Thermal Balaclava Ski Mask for Ski Clothing$11.99 → $14.99（+25%）1.7
价格骤变ROCKBROS Windproof Thermal Balaclava Ski Mask for Snowboarding Clothing$11.99 → $14.99（+25%）1.7
价格骤变YEOREO Ease Workout Leggings Womens Straight LeggiRunning Clothing$24.28 → $29.99（+24%）1.6
价格骤变ZOORON Beanie for Women Men Ski Watch Cap Cuffed PHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing$6.99 → $8.54（+22%）1.5
价格骤变ZOORON Beanie for Women Men Ski Watch Cap Cuffed PSki Clothing$6.99 → $8.54（+22%）1.5
价格骤变ZOORON Beanie for Women Men Ski Watch Cap Cuffed PSnowboarding Clothing$6.99 → $8.54（+22%）1.5
价格骤变Speedo Womens Swimsuit One Piece Endura Soft ClassCompetitive Swimwear$29.60 → $23.40（-21%）1.4
价格骤变Sooverki Copper Compression Socks for Men & Women Cycling Clothing$16.98 → $19.98（+18%）1.2
价格骤变Speedo Boy's Swimsuit Jammer Begin to Swim SolidCompetitive Swimwear$28.80 → $24.00（-17%）1.1

品牌攻防固定同一批商品比较排名质量：谁在往上抢席位，谁在往下掉

可比商品
1190
两天都识别出品牌
有变化品牌
374
共 396 个品牌
新进榜商品
379
179 个品牌
抢位最猛G Gradual：35 个在榜商品权重分 1,991 → 2,251（+260，相对 +13.1%），Top20 席位 +2。
失位最多SANTINY：13 个在榜商品权重分 723 → 552（-171，相对 -23.7%），Top20 席位 -1。
真·新进榜品牌PINSPARK（27 个商品）、G Gradual（16 个商品）、MAGCOMSEN（10 个商品）、adidas（9 个商品）、Stelle（8 个商品）、Speedo（8 个商品）、NORTHYARD（7 个商品）、CRZ YOGA（7 个商品），共 379 个新商品。
口径说明只统计「两天都识别出品牌」的同一批 1190 个商品；权重分 = Σ(101-排名)，越高说明该品牌占的位置越好。另有 0 个排名位尚未采集到品牌，不计入。

品牌排名质量变动（按权重分变化绝对值排序）

只比较两天都识别出品牌的同一批商品，避免详情采集进度造成虚假增减。

品牌在榜商品今日权重分变动相对变化Top20 席位Top50 席位今日中位价价格变动
G Gradual352,251+260+13.1%+2+5——
Under Armour311,788+192+12.0%+2+124.97+0.11
SANTINY13552-171-23.7%-1-2——
PINSPARK382,361-131-5.3%-2-314.99+0.00
Carhartt13681+88+14.8%+0+118.20-0.57
ZOORON8491-82-14.3%-2-27.99+0.00
CHOK.LIDS8321-73-18.5%+0-2——
LalaHooK6346+69+24.9%+1+111.69+0.00
XIEERDUO6268+59+28.2%+0+1——
Century Star15969-56-5.5%-2+06.99+0.00
MLYENX6292+56+23.7%+0+1——
Leafigure6444+53+13.6%+0+29.99+0.00
MaxNova7354-52-12.8%+0+07.64+0.00
Liberty Imports6408+51+14.3%+0+239.95+0.00
COOFANDY4108-50-31.6%+0-1——
BOOJO7214+49+29.7%+0+017.98+0.00
PRETTYGARDEN14964-49-4.8%-1-236.99+0.00
NY Threads4278-47-14.5%-1+0——
AUTOMET8530+44+9.1%+1+022.09+0.00
MCPORO4195+44+29.1%+0+1——
BJY385-44-34.1%+0-19.99+0.00
Tstiti4194+44+29.3%+0+014.99+0.00
Gaglg387-43-33.1%+0+021.99+0.00
Coseaon254-43-44.3%+0+0——
Zengjo7406-41-9.2%+0-2——

价格带迁移商品在价格带之间怎么流动，哪个带在吸货

留在原带
853
98%
涨价带
16
个
降价带
6
个
价格带流动性875 个可比商品中 853 个（98%）留在原价格带，16 个涨带、6 个降带。
吸货/失血的价位15-20 美元带净流入 +7 个商品，<10 美元带净流出 -8 个。

价格带流向 Top15

迁移商品数
<10 → 10-156
10-15 → 15-204
20-30 → 15-203
<10 → 15-202
30-50 → 50-1002
15-20 → 20-301
30-50 → 20-301
10-15 → 20-301
20-30 → 10-151
15-20 → 10-151

各价格带净流入

价格带净流入
15-20+7
10-15+3
50-100+2
20-30-1
30-50-3
<10-8

跨带幅度最大

商品分类价格幅度排名
Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SBasketball Clothing7.44 → 15.35+106%2
Fruit of the Loom Eversoft Fleece Elastic Bottom SRunning Clothing7.44 → 15.35+106%2
Pudolla Men's Fishing Swim Graphic Shirts Short SlCompetitive Swimwear14.99 → 24.99+67%57
Amazon Essentials Women's Fleece Hooded Tunic SweaVolleyball Clothing7.32 → 11.12+52%67
Place and Street Men’s Cotton Thermal Underwear SeSki Clothing13.21 → 19.88+50%71
Dokotoo Women's Casual Crew Neck Sweatshirt Loose Volleyball Clothing27.88 → 14.99-46%56
JMIERR Mens 2 Piece Hoodie Jogger Set Textured KniMartial Arts Clothing45.99 → 29.99-35%94
Augusta Sportswear Mens Baseball 3/4 Sleeve Tee 2.Baseball Clothing9.60 → 12.67+32%41
URATOT 2 Pack Women's Cotton Dolphin Lounge ActiveBaseball Clothing9.99 → 12.99+30%54
Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing9.99 → 12.99+30%32
Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaSoccer & Futsal Clothing9.99 → 12.99+30%25
Saloogoe Sweatshirt for women Fall Outfits 2026 FaVolleyball Clothing9.99 → 12.99+30%11
MdnMd Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard for BalletDance Apparel13.98 → 17.99+29%67
MdnMd Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard for BalletGymnastics Clothing13.98 → 17.99+29%7
Arshiner Kids Girls Classic Long Sleeve Leotard DaGymnastics Clothing18.99 → 23.99+26%96

机会缺口评论涨得快 + 排名在升 + 价格低于类目中位 = 潜力款候选

综合分最高Merino.tech 100% Merino Wool Base Layer Men Se（Ski Clothing）得分 55.0：评论 +2,342，排名 88→92，价格 $99.99。
评分口径提醒这是启发式打分（评论增速 45% + 排名上升 30% + 低于类目均价 15% + 评分 10%），用于缩小人工复核范围，不是销量预测。

潜力款候选 Top20

商品分类综合分排名排名变动评论日增价格评分入选理由
Merino.tech 100% Merino Wool Base Layer Men Set Ski Clothing55.092-4+2,34299.994.5评论+2,342、评分≥4.3
MELASA Unisex Beanie with The Light Hands Free WSnowboarding Clothing51.145+33+28.994.7评论+2、排名升33、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Balaclava Face Ski Mask with Movable Design for Snowboarding Clothing48.762+30011.994.6排名升30、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Pudolla Men's Fishing Swim Graphic Shirts Short Competitive Swimwear43.257+23024.994.5排名升23、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Hanes Men's Lightweight Cotton Jersey Cuffed JogBasketball Clothing40.873+20+212.984.3评论+2、排名升20、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Balaclava Ski Mask, Fleece Winter Face Mask ColdSnowboarding Clothing40.179+19+49.494.5评论+4、排名升19、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women Long Sleeve HalfSoccer & Futsal Clothing40.150+38+437.994.5评论+4、排名升38、评分≥4.3
IRAMY Ankle Compression Socks Women Men Plantar Running Clothing39.371+18+67.594.5评论+6、排名升18、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
3 Pack Long Sleeve Shirts for Men Sun ProtectionYoga Clothing39.365+18+611.694.5评论+6、排名升18、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts MoistuYoga Clothing39.245+37+1—4.5评论+1、排名升37、评分≥4.3
Leafigure 2 Pack Womens Biker Shorts with PocketYoga Clothing37.835+16+99.994.5评论+9、排名升16、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Runhit Mens Thermal Underwear Set Fleece Lined LSki Clothing37.649+16014.994.7排名升16、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Under Armour Men's Sportstyle Left Chest Logo ShYoga Clothing37.064+15+1019.994.6评论+10、排名升15、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Anlisim Merino Wool Hiking Running Socks for WomHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing36.850+15016.984.6排名升15、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Borogo 2 Pack Rain Ponchos for Adults Reusable -Cycling Clothing36.179+14+39.994.4评论+3、排名升14、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Wmcaps Winter Beanie for Men Women, Soft Warm FlSki Clothing36.142+14+38.994.7评论+3、排名升14、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
3 Pack Long Sleeve Shirts for Men Sun ProtectionHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing35.459+13+611.694.5评论+6、排名升13、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
Leafigure 2 Pack Womens Biker Shorts with PocketSoccer & Futsal Clothing35.427+13+99.994.5评论+9、排名升13、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
WIHOLL Sweatshirt for Women Long Sleeve Shirts FVolleyball Clothing35.424+13+512.994.5评论+5、排名升13、低于类目均价、评分≥4.3
G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts MoistuHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing35.338+32+1—4.5评论+1、排名升32、评分≥4.3

趋势面

排名动量最近几天的排名斜率：谁在稳步上冲，谁在滑落

样本
1746
个商品有 ≥3 天数据
上冲
982
个
滑落
731
个
上冲最快Winter Gloves Men Women Made with Graphene & 平均每天前进 31.0 名，3 天内从第 99 名到第 37 名。
滑落最快Century Star Knee High Socks for Women Long 平均每天后退 42.0 名。

排名上冲 Top20

商品分类现排名斜率累计变动天数
Winter Gloves Men Women Made with Graphene & 3M ThSnowboarding Clothing37-31.0/天-623
Trendy Queen Women’s Fleece Oversized Mock Neck SwHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing37-21.8/天-614
Arctix Women's Essential Insulated Ski Bibs, WaterSki Clothing24-21.5/天-433
SANTINY Women's Track Pants 28"/30"/32"/34" | StraSoccer & Futsal Clothing42-21.5/天-433
Taubow 2 Packs Gymnastics Leotards for Girls Kids Gymnastics Clothing29-20.5/天-524
Stelle Gymnastics Leotards for Girls Unitards BikeDance Apparel51-20.5/天-413
MdnMd Girls' Women's Ballet Tights Ultra Soft ConvDance Apparel38-20.0/天-614
G Gradual 28"/30"/32"/34" Inseam Women's Yoga PantYoga Clothing61-19.5/天-393
Tstiti Gymnastics Leotards for Girls Long Sleeve OGymnastics Clothing41-18.6/天-484
SANTINY Women's Track Pants 28"/30"/32"/34" | StraBasketball Clothing44-18.5/天-373
Zaclotre Kid Girls Gymnastic Leotard Sparkly ShinyGymnastics Clothing35-18.0/天-363
G Gradual Men's Fleece Lined Winter Pants with 3 ZBasketball Clothing65-17.5/天-353
G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts MoistureYoga Clothing48-17.0/天-343
32 Degrees Heat Women's Lightweight Baselayer CrewSki Clothing43-16.8/天-534
Under Armour Kids HeatGear Armour Short Sleeve (BiCycling Clothing58-16.5/天-333
Trendy Queen Women’s Fleece Oversized Mock Neck SwSoccer & Futsal Clothing33-16.1/天-585
Nymphperi Gymnastics Leotards for Girls Long SleevGymnastics Clothing28-15.7/天-524
LOMON Balaclava Ski Mask Sherpa Hood Fleece WinterSnowboarding Clothing62-15.5/天-313
Nymphperi Gymnastics Leotards for Girls Sparkly 2 Dance Apparel11-15.1/天-776
G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts MoistureHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing40-15.0/天-303

排名滑落 Top20

商品分类现排名斜率累计变动天数
Century Star Knee High Socks for Women Long Tube SSoccer & Futsal Clothing99+42.0/天+843
Women's Teen Adult Tutu Skirt Elastic Tulle Tutu SDance Apparel98+37.5/天+753
Mens Sweatsuit 2 Piece Fleece Hoodie Tracksuit SofMartial Arts Clothing91+35.0/天+703
Facitisu Track Suits for Women Set Sweatsuits 2 PiVolleyball Clothing88+32.0/天+643
speerise Long Sleeve Bodysuit One Piece Bodycon TuGymnastics Clothing97+29.0/天+583
OVIGILY Women's Long Sleeve Unitard Dance Costume Gymnastics Clothing96+28.0/天+563
VZV 2T-6Y Toddler Thermal Set Thermal Underwear foSki Clothing98+27.0/天+543
Zengjo Men's Ringer Tee Crewneck Athletic T ShirtsCycling Clothing68+26.0/天+523
Ekkovision Lifestyle Beaters, Men's Tank Tops, OrgYoga Clothing80+25.0/天+503
ZOORON Beanie for Women Men Ski Watch Cap Cuffed PHiking & Outdoor Recreation Clothing91+24.5/天+493
dioxoib Men Track Suits Sets Long Sleeve Full-zip Volleyball Clothing100+24.5/天+493
Century Star Beanie for Men Women Black Skull Cap Running Clothing97+23.0/天+463
NPJY Baseball Cap Golf Dad Hat Adjustable OriginalRunning Clothing97+23.0/天+463
LOMON Women's Low Rise Micro Mini Skirt with BuiltGolf Clothing94+23.0/天+463
ZOORON Beanie for Men Women Warm Winter Hat UnisexSnowboarding Clothing70+22.5/天+453
ZOORON Beanie for Men Women Warm Winter hat AcryliSnowboarding Clothing99+21.8/天+674
Amazon Essentials Unisex Kids and Toddlers' Long SBasketball Clothing87+21.5/天+433
Century Star Beanie for Men Women Black Skull Cap Ski Clothing100+21.1/天+905
LXNMGO Women's 2"/7" High Waist Yoga Shorts Tummy Soccer & Futsal Clothing91+20.9/天+825
PINSPARK Tennis Skirts for Women High Waisted GolfTennis Clothing94+20.9/天+654

预测

预测与自校验对明天做预测，第二天用真实结果给自己打分，命中率低就自动调阈值

累计预测
566
条
命中
288
条
命中率
51%
全部历史
预测命中率历史 566 条预测命中 288 条（51%）。命中率低于 50% 时 self_improve 会自动放宽阈值，高于 80% 时收紧。

对 2026-11-01 的预测（8 条掉榜风险 / 7 条上冲潜力）

类型商品分类置信度依据
掉榜风险COOFANDY Mens Quarter Zip Pullover Sweatshirt Cagolf1.00排在第 99 名且比昨天后退 22 名
掉榜风险Idgreatim 9-16T Teen Girls One Piece Swimsuit Atswimwear1.00排在第 96 名且比昨天后退 21 名
掉榜风险Coseaon 80s Tracksuit for Women Retro Windbreakevolleyball1.00排在第 98 名且比昨天后退 28 名
掉榜风险Tooprvix Men's Stretch Tactical Pants,Water Resibasketball0.97排在第 98 名且比昨天后退 16 名
掉榜风险NPJY 2 Packs Unisex Beanie for Men and Women Kniski0.95排在第 96 名且比昨天后退 17 名
掉榜风险Dolfin Swimwear Athletic One Piece Swimsuit - Prswimwear0.95排在第 95 名且比昨天后退 18 名
掉榜风险Glamaker Women's Long Sleeve Crewneck Sweatshirtvolleyball0.95排在第 97 名且比昨天后退 16 名
掉榜风险Phantomon Tutu Skirt Women's Teens Classic Elastdance0.90排在第 95 名且比昨天后退 16 名
上冲潜力PINSPARK 2 Piece Sets for Women Long Sleeve Halftennis0.81第 35 名，一天前进 27 名，评论 +4
上冲潜力Leafigure 2 Pack Womens Biker Shorts with Pocketyoga0.72第 35 名，一天前进 16 名，评论 +9
上冲潜力G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts Moistuhiking0.71第 38 名，一天前进 32 名，评论 +1
上冲潜力Aloodor Sweatsuit for Women 2 Piece Outfits for martial-arts0.57第 28 名，一天前进 25 名，评论 +1
上冲潜力G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts Moistusoccer0.55第 34 名，一天前进 24 名，评论 +1
上冲潜力G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts Moistutennis0.47第 22 名，一天前进 20 名，评论 +1
上冲潜力G Gradual Men's Athletic Workout T-Shirts Moistugolf0.43第 26 名，一天前进 18 名，评论 +1

历史命中率（逐日）

预测日条数命中命中率
2026-11-0416956%
2026-11-03161062%
2026-11-02191368%
2026-11-01252496%
2026-10-3115747%
2026-10-309778%
2026-10-2910770%
2026-10-28211676%
2026-10-2712758%
2026-10-268675%
2026-10-2510660%
2026-10-24131077%
2026-10-23151067%
2026-10-2210990%
2026-10-21341235%
2026-10-194012%
2026-10-18513263%
2026-10-171085147%
2026-10-161345138%